Every team's odds to win the 2026 World Cup

World Cup Fever: Unpacking the Unlikely Contenders

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup draws closer, the air is thick with anticipation. Fans from all corners of the globe are counting down the days until the world’s greatest footballers take to the pitch in a spectacle that promises to captivate, inspire, and occasionally confound. But beneath the excitement lies a complex web of factors that will shape the outcome of the tournament – and it’s not just about the heavyweights of European and South American football.

The Road to Glory: Assessing the Key Contenders

At first glance, the 32 teams qualified for the World Cup appear to be neatly divided into haves and have-nots. The likes of Brazil, Spain, Germany, and France – perennial powerhouses with a proven track record of success – seem destined to dominate the competition. However, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture. The 2026 World Cup will be the first to feature 48 teams, and with the introduction of a new format, there is unprecedented opportunity for upsets and surprises. The expanded tournament will see the introduction of a round of 32, with the top two teams from each group advancing directly to the knockout stage, while the third-placed teams will compete in a new play-off round.

This shift in the tournament’s structure has significant implications for the chances of traditionally weaker teams. Gone are the days when a single slip-up could spell disaster; the increased number of teams and matches has created a more level playing field. For instance, the likes of Ghana, who have never progressed beyond the quarterfinals in their World Cup history, will now have to navigate a more crowded field, but their chances of making a deeper run have arguably increased. Similarly, the introduction of a play-off round provides a lifeline for teams that might otherwise be eliminated after a single group-stage defeat.

A History of Underdogs: Drawing Parallels with Past Upsets

The 2026 World Cup is not the first time football’s biggest stage has been shaken by the unexpected. History is replete with examples of teams from outside the traditional powerhouses rising to the occasion. The 2010 World Cup in South Africa, for instance, saw the hosts themselves cause a surprise by reaching the final, where they ultimately fell to Spain. The same tournament also witnessed the Netherlands’ Oranje stun Brazil in the quarterfinals, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the beautiful game. More recently, Japan’s 2018 World Cup campaign ended in a heart-stopping 2-2 draw against Belgium, which would have earned them a quarterfinal spot had they held on for just a few more minutes.

In many ways, the 2026 World Cup promises to be an even more dramatic affair. With the expanded format and the increased number of teams, the stage is set for more upsets and surprises. The likes of Senegal, who have never reached the World Cup quarterfinals, will be looking to build on their 2018 showing, when they reached the last eight. And while it’s difficult to predict which teams will ultimately emerge victorious, one thing is certain: the 2026 World Cup will be an unforgettable experience for fans around the world.

Odds On: What the Bookies Say

While it’s impossible to predict the outcome with certainty, the bookies have made their predictions. According to odds released by various sportsbooks, Brazil and France are currently favored to win the tournament, with Spain, Germany, and Argentina rounding out the top five. However, these predictions are not without controversy. Many are questioning the fairness of the odds, arguing that they fail to account for the significant changes to the tournament format. Some teams, such as the United States, have seen their odds drop significantly, despite the introduction of a new format that could potentially benefit them.

The reaction from fans and pundits alike has been mixed. Some see the odds as a reflection of the teams’ true abilities, while others believe they are rigged in favor of the traditional powerhouses. As the World Cup draws closer, it will be fascinating to see how these predictions hold up in the face of the tournament’s unpredictable nature.

The Road Ahead: What to Watch

As the 2026 World Cup approaches, fans around the world will be holding their breath in anticipation of the drama, excitement, and occasionally heartbreaking moments that this tournament always brings. The expanded format, the introduction of new teams, and the increased number of matches have created a complex web of possibilities. With so many variables at play, it’s impossible to predict with certainty which teams will emerge victorious. But one thing is certain: the 2026 World Cup will be an unforgettable experience that promises to captivate, inspire, and occasionally confound fans of all ages.

Written by

Veridus Editorial

Editorial Team

Veridus is an independent publication covering Africa's ideas, politics, and future.