A Web of Fear: Lebanon on High Alert as Trump Suggests Syrian Intervention
Lebanon’s already fragile stability is on the brink of collapse as US President Donald Trump’s proposal for Syria to deal with Hezbollah has sent shockwaves across the country. The suggestion, which Trump has now raised twice this month, touches on some of Lebanon’s deepest anxieties: Syria’s long history of interference in its affairs and the jihadist past of the country’s new rulers.
Syria dominated Lebanon’s political scene for nearly three decades, with its forces first deploying in 1976 ostensibly as peacekeepers but remaining long after the fighting stopped. The prolonged military presence was seen by many as an occupation, marred by thousands of disappearances and deaths that have shaped Lebanese distrust and complicated feelings toward Syria. Any renewed Syrian intervention inside Lebanon is likely to be very unpopular.
The Iran-backed Shiite Lebanese militant group Hezbollah intervened on behalf of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian civil war to preserve a vital arms supply route linking it to Iran and Iraq. Its relationship with Assad was built on a shared enmity with Israel and a common alliance with Iran. However, this ended with the fall of Assad in 2024 and the rise of President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda jihadist who ejected Iran-backed armed groups from the country and has been leaning Westward since.
Al-Sharaa has denied reports of Syrian intervention in Lebanon, calling them “completely false.” However, the prospect of Syrian troops entering Lebanon is likely to raise alarm bells, as many come from factions within Islamist and jihadist backgrounds and have been accused of atrocities against minorities within Syria’s own borders. Lebanon is a multi-sectarian society with over a dozen ethnic and religious minority groups, including one of the region’s largest Christian populations.
Michael Young, a Lebanon expert and senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center, has called Trump’s proposal a “completely absurd idea.” He warns that the sectarian dimension of such an intervention would be very risky, dividing Lebanon and being a disaster. “He (Sharaa) would be making a big mistake if he did it,” he said.
The potential intervention by the hardline Islamist-rooted regime in Syria also risks upsetting the delicate sectarian balance that underpins Lebanon’s political system, particularly given the leadership’s past hostility to Shiites, who make up a significant proportion of Lebanon’s population. Some religious groups that oppose Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon might prefer the militant group over Syrian forces, according to Young.
“You could potentially see the entry of a Syrian army dominated by Salafists…it would create panic among Christians, Druze and Shias. They would not welcome this,” he said. “It would reinforce Hezbollah rather than weaken them.” Just how firm al-Sharaa’s hold on power is across Syria remains in question, especially over the army – an issue Young says would compound the disastrous nature of such a decision.
Syria potentially taking part in efforts to address Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon also risks dragging Lebanon back into a regional quagmire it has been trying to move past. The government has been trying to take back control of its own security in the face of Hezbollah’s overwhelming military power. Lebanon’s sovereignty is already under strain, with Israel refusing to withdraw its troops from the south of the country.
A senior US official told CNN on Monday that the Trump administration’s emerging ceasefire agreement with Iran does not include a requirement that Israel withdraw from Lebanon. Trump has, however, made clear his frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling reporters Tuesday he needed to be “more responsible with respect to Lebanon.” The US president has clashed with Netanyahu several times in recent months, believing the Israeli leader and his government were making it more difficult for the US to strike a deal with Iran by attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In a harsh reaction to Trump’s Syria suggestion, far-right Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said, “The idea of entrusting our security into the hands of ISIS terrorists, beheaders and murderers of young girls will not happen.” The international community is watching with bated breath as Lebanon teeters on the brink of chaos. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is certain: the fate of Lebanon hangs in the balance.
The Web of Politics: A Complex Dance of Interests
As Lebanon’s stability hangs in the balance, the politics behind Trump’s proposal are complex and multifaceted. The US president’s suggestion for Syria to deal with Hezbollah is likely to raise alarm bells among many in Lebanon, particularly given the country’s history with Syria. The potential intervention by the hardline Islamist-rooted regime in Syria risks upsetting the delicate sectarian balance that underpins Lebanon’s political system.
The relationship between Hezbollah and Iran is also a key factor in this complex dance of interests. Hezbollah’s intervention on behalf of Assad during the Syrian civil war was built on a shared enmity with Israel and a common alliance with Iran. However, this ended with the fall of Assad in 2024 and the rise of President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who has been leaning Westward since.
The international community is watching with bated breath as Lebanon teeters on the brink of chaos. The US, Israel, and Iran are all players in this complex game of interests, each with their own agenda and motivations. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is certain: the fate of Lebanon hangs in the balance.
A Fragile Stability: Lebanon on the Brink
Lebanon’s stability is fragile at best, and the potential intervention by Syria risks pushing the country over the edge. The country’s history with Syria is complex and fraught, with thousands of disappearances and deaths that have shaped Lebanese distrust and complicated feelings toward Syria.
The delicate sectarian balance that underpins Lebanon’s political system is also at risk, particularly given the leadership’s past hostility to Shiites, who make up a significant proportion of Lebanon’s population. The potential intervention by Syria also risks dragging Lebanon back into a regional quagmire it has been trying to move past.
As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is certain: Lebanon’s fate hangs in the balance. The international community is watching with bated breath as the country teeters on the brink of chaos. The US, Israel, and Iran are all players in this complex game of interests, each with their own agenda and motivations.
A Call to Action: What Next for Lebanon?
The situation in Lebanon is dire, and the international community must act quickly to prevent further chaos. The US, Israel, and Iran must work together to find a solution that respects Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability.
The Lebanese government must also take a stand and assert its authority over its own security. Hezbollah’s overwhelming military power must be addressed, and the country’s delicate sectarian balance must be preserved.
As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is certain: the fate of Lebanon hangs in the balance. The international community must come together to support the country and prevent further chaos. The time for action is now.