The Strait of Hormuz: A War Without a Clear Victor
The US President Donald Trump’s latest response to the collapse of talks in Islamabad has been to announce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that will likely have the effect of stopping Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia from exporting their oil. This decision is a stark reminder of the escalating tensions in the region and the seemingly intractable nature of the conflict.
A War Without a Clear Path to Victory
Since the US launched the war against Iran, the country has allowed about 100 vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, on the other hand, has gone from a policy of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil to ease global supply pressures to seeking to cut off the country’s oil exports altogether. However, experts warn that this move will only exacerbate the situation, leading to a spike in oil prices and increased pressure on the global economy.
Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank, pointed out that closing the strait entirely would have severe consequences for the global economy. “Closing the strait entirely will spike oil prices even more than they did before, and put more pressure on the US from the international community,” she said.
Meanwhile, Vali Nasr, a former US official and a professor at Johns Hopkins University, noted that this move will only prolong the chokehold on the global economy. “This is fine by the Iranians - it prolongs the chokehold on the global economy… And the Iranians could shut down [the] Bab el-Mandeb and then the US will have to deal with that,” he said.
The Israeli Factor
Trump’s decision to announce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been seen as a betrayal by Iran, which had agreed to dilute its 60 percent enriched uranium and only continue low-grade enrichment under international supervision. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, posted on X, “When just inches away from ‘Islamabad MoU’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade.”
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been a vocal supporter of Trump’s decision, with some analysts suggesting that he may have exerted pressure on Trump to abandon the talks. “Israel did not take kindly to being cut out of the Islamabad negotiations that led to direct talks, and would have strained every sinew to get back into the process by sabotaging it,” one analyst noted.
Iran’s Stronger Position
Outside the bubble of fantasy that Trump inhabits, most analysts agree that Iran is in a stronger position to confront the US than it was at the start of the war. The country has proven control over the Strait of Hormuz, with US intelligence assessment showing that it has half its rocket launchers and drones, and retains thousands of missiles which it can fire from launchers buried underground.
After 13,000 strikes by US and Israeli bombers, Iran has proven its powers of regeneration. It has the increasingly overt backing of China and Russia, and again, according to US intelligence, this is more than just verbal support. China is preparing to ship new air defence systems to Iran.
The Cost of War
The war has already had a devastating impact on the global economy, with oil prices spiking and global production plummeting. The Suez Canal, a vital trade route, has also been affected, with a pumping station for an east-west pipeline carrying Saudi oil to the Red Sea being hit by Iranian attacks.
Any attempt by US military action to reverse these gains would be hard fought and bloody. As Brandon Carr and Trita Parsi wrote, getting physical control of the Strait of Hormuz would involve US troops seizing three Iranian islands - Abu Musa, Larak, and Kharg - in the Persian Gulf.
A New Round of Escalation
The prospect of a new and even fiercer round in this war has split not only the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries but the mutual defence pact that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed after Israel attacked Hamas negotiators in Doha last year.
The UAE and Bahrain, Israel’s closest allies in the Gulf, are firmly for “finishing the job” and have probably already started attacking Iran directly. Qatar and Oman are in the peace now camp, while Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are hovering in between both.
A Global Problem
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a regional problem, but a global issue that has far-reaching consequences for the global economy and stability. As Trump’s antics continue to escalate tensions, the case to impeach him grows stronger.
Europe is largely out of the game, while China is watching from a distance, waiting for an opportunity to strike. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Veridus.
What Happens Next?
As the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to deteriorate, it is difficult to predict what will happen next. Will Trump’s decision to announce a blockade of the strait lead to a wider conflict, or will Iran find a way to circumvent the blockade? One thing is certain, however: the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
As the international community watches with bated breath, the question on everyone’s mind is: what will it take for Trump to stop this war? The answer, unfortunately, remains elusive.